Daewoo Securities Daily Focus (July 11, 2016) Research Team (research@dwsec-id.com) Market Comment by Dang Maulida (dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com) After a long Eid holiday, the JCI is expected to trade moderately higher today following the positive sentiments from both the United States (US) and Japan’s market this morning. The DJIA closed at 18,147pts Friday last week, up by 1.4% on better-than-expected non farm payroll figures. The nonfarm payrolls report showed the US created 287,000 jobs last month, versus 175,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. The US unemployment rate edged higher to 4.9 percent, versus the 4.8 percent estimate. At the other end, world oil price that closed at USD45.4/barrel last week will give negative counter impact on today’s JCI move. The JCI is expected to trade within 4,950 – 5,010 today. Market Indicator JCI: 4,971.58 (-0.89%) EIDO: 24.53 (+1.57%) DJIA: 18,146.74 (+1.40%) FTSE100: 6,590.64 (+0.87%) USD/IDR: 13,180 (+0.26%) 10yr GB yield: 7.38% (-7bps) Oil Price: 45.41 (+0.60%) Foreign net purchase: IDR983.9bn Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141) TOP BUY: BBCA, TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI TOP SELL: PGAS, WIKA, WSKT, INTP, JSMR Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102) TLKM, BBCA, BBRI, ASII, BMRI Daewoo Indonesia Equity Movers Investment Information Team (utfi.humaya@dwsec-id.com) *U.S. adds 287,000 new jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.9% from 4.7% *U.S. May consumer credit jumps $18.6 billion, up at 6.2% annual rate vs 4.5% gain in April *U.S. oil rig-count up 10 to 351: BHI *U.K. trade deficit widens by £300 million to £2.3 billion in May, exports fall £2 billion, imports drop £1.7 billion *GIAA -1.6%. During Lebaran, average seat load factors recorded at 74%. *AMRT 0.0%. Biscuits and syrup boost Alfamart revenue during Lebaran. *MAPI -2.6%. Co targeting the contribution of e-commerce amounted to 8% of consolidated revenue. *MEDC +24.6%. Acquire Newmont, Medco Energi optimistic positive performance. *BRMS +3.8%. Co officially sell its 24% stake in Newmont to Medco. *SUGI +1.2%. Co plans to hold rights issue to strengthen its capital structure. *CPIN -0.5%. Co will increase portion of processed product sales with profit growth target of 18%. *JRPT -0.5%. Co changed its business focus to Pasar Kemis as one of the centers of new property development. Daily write up Developers (Maintain Neutral): Time to be cautious by Franky Rivan (franky@dwsec-id.com) -We maintain our Neutral outlook on developers, factoring in our view that -1) the tax amnesty’s spillover on the property sector should be positive, but -2) global event uncertainties could further hamper the market, -3) the government’s cut to infrastructure spending will impede property attractiveness, -4) we note the severe oversupply looming in the property sector, and -5) high property prices in Indonesia mean property is no longer very affordable. Macro Update June inflation: An expected hike by Dang Maulida (dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com) (July 1, 2016) -As expected, inflation for the month of June inched up by 0.66% MoM (vs.0.24% MoM in May). June CPI exhibited lowest MoM inflation rate over the last five years. On an annual basis, June inflation registered a hike of 3.45% which came in higher compared to the previous month (3.3% YoY). -On an annual basis, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.45% in June, or higher compared to the previous month of 3.33%. Five out of seven components in the CPI incurred an increase, except housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel (1.18% YoY in June vs. 1.26% YoY in May), and education, recreation, and sports (3.59% YoY in June vs. 3.63% YoY in May). -We rate June CPI rate and the annually mild level to be positive. We see increasing chances of the government achieving its inflation target of 4% YoY this year.

Daewoo Securities Daily Focus (July 11, 2016)

Research Team (research@dwsec-id.com)

 

Market Comment by Dang Maulida (dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com)

After a long Eid holiday, the JCI is expected to trade moderately higher today following the positive sentiments from both the United States (US) and Japan’s market this morning.  The DJIA closed at 18,147pts Friday last week, up by 1.4% on better-than-expected non farm payroll figures.  The nonfarm payrolls report showed the US created 287,000 jobs last month, versus 175,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. The US unemployment rate edged higher to 4.9 percent, versus the 4.8 percent estimate. At the other end, world oil price that closed at USD45.4/barrel last week will give negative counter impact on today’s JCI move.  The JCI is expected to trade within 4,950 – 5,010 today. 

 

Market Indicator

JCI: 4,971.58 (-0.89%)

EIDO: 24.53 (+1.57%) 

DJIA: 18,146.74 (+1.40%) 

FTSE100: 6,590.64 (+0.87%)

USD/IDR: 13,180 (+0.26%)

10yr GB yield: 7.38% (-7bps)

Oil Price: 45.41 (+0.60%) 

Foreign net purchase: IDR983.9bn

 

Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141) 

TOP BUY: BBCA, TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI

TOP SELL: PGAS, WIKA, WSKT, INTP, JSMR

 

Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

TLKM, BBCA, BBRI, ASII, BMRI

 

Daewoo Indonesia Equity Movers 

Investment Information Team (utfi.humaya@dwsec-id.com)

 

*U.S. adds 287,000 new jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.9% from 4.7% *U.S. May consumer credit jumps $18.6 billion, up at 6.2% annual rate vs 4.5% gain in April 

*U.S. oil rig-count up 10 to 351: BHI 

*U.K. trade deficit widens by £300 million to £2.3 billion in May, exports fall £2 billion, imports drop £1.7 billion

 

*GIAA -1.6%. During Lebaran, average seat load factors recorded at 74%.

*AMRT 0.0%. Biscuits and syrup boost Alfamart revenue during Lebaran.

*MAPI -2.6%. Co targeting the contribution of e-commerce amounted to 8% of consolidated revenue.

*MEDC +24.6%. Acquire Newmont, Medco Energi optimistic positive performance.

*BRMS +3.8%. Co officially sell its 24% stake in Newmont to Medco.

*SUGI +1.2%. Co plans to hold rights issue to strengthen its capital structure.

*CPIN -0.5%. Co will increase portion of processed product sales with profit growth target of 18%.

*JRPT -0.5%. Co changed its business focus to Pasar Kemis as one of the centers of new property development.

 

Daily write up  

Developers (Maintain Neutral): Time to be cautious by Franky Rivan (franky@dwsec-id.com)

-We maintain our Neutral outlook on developers, factoring in our view that 

-1) the tax amnesty’s spillover on the property sector should be positive, but 

-2) global event uncertainties could further hamper the market, 

-3) the government’s cut to infrastructure spending will impede property attractiveness, 

-4) we note the severe oversupply looming in the property sector, and 

-5) high property prices in Indonesia mean property is no longer very affordable.

 

Macro Update 

June inflation: An expected hike by Dang Maulida (dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com)

(July 1, 2016)

-As expected, inflation for the month of June inched up by 0.66% MoM (vs.0.24% MoM in May). June CPI exhibited lowest MoM inflation rate over the last five years. On an annual basis, June inflation registered a hike of 3.45% which came in higher compared to the previous month (3.3% YoY).

-On an annual basis, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.45% in June, or higher compared to the previous month of 3.33%. Five out of seven components in the CPI incurred an increase, except housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel (1.18% YoY in June vs. 1.26% YoY in May), and education, recreation, and sports (3.59% YoY in June vs. 3.63% YoY in May).

-We rate June CPI rate and the annually mild level to be positive. We see increasing chances of the government achieving its inflation target of 4% YoY this year.