Ulasan Pasar Modal Hari Ini, 11 Agustus 2016 (IHSG)
Market Comment by Taye Shim (taye.shim@dwsec.com)
IHSG diperkirakan akan diperdagangkan sideways setelah harga minyak tergelincir semalam. Kemarin, foreign investors net bought saham Indonesia senilai IDR2.6tr - terbesar kedua single day purchase, year-to-date. Kami menduga lonjakan tajam dalam foreign net purchase terutama didorong oleh c. IDR2.0triliun senilai perdagangan yang dinegosiasikan pada INTP (dieksekusi oleh Nikko dan Net Sekuritas). Sebagai pengingat cepat, asing telah secara agresif membeli INTP sejak 20 Juli (lihat HOTS layar # 0021; https://goo.gl/gJCZUm).
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,423.95 (-0.30%)
EIDO: 26.60 (-0.71%)
DJIA: 18,495.66 (-0.20%)
FTSE100: 6,866.42 (+0.22%)
USD/IDR: 13,113 (-0.11%)
10yr GB yield: 6.79% (-4bps)
Oil Price: 41.71 (-2.48%)
Foreign net purchase: IDR2,618.7bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: ASII, BBCA, BBRI, UNVR, GGRM
TOP SELL: TLKM, WSKT, LINK, BBNI, PGAS
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
ASII, PPRO, TLKM, BBRI, SRIL
Technical Insight by Tasrul (tasrul@dwsec-id.com)
*IHSG: hari ini masih cenderung konsolidasi , perkiraan trading range hari ini 5,397-5,465. Indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized akan mendekati support trendline dengan volume tembus rata-rata.
*PGAS: buy on weaknees, trading range hari ini 3,120-3,330. Indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized saat ini masih cenderung turun mendekati support trendline dengan volume tembus rata-rata.
*MAIN: buy on weakness, trading range hari ini 1,840-1,970. Indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized saat ini masih cenderung turun mendekati dengan volume tembus rata-rata.
*RALS: sell on strength, trading range hari ini 1,205-1,320. Indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI Optimized saat ini masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata.
Daewoo Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (utfi.humaya@dwsec-id.com)
*Persediaan minyak mentah AS naik 1,1 juta barel pekan lalu: EIA
*Suplai bensin turun 2,8 juta barel: EIA
*Job opening naik ke 5,6 juta di bulan Juni dari 5,5 juta pada bulan Mei, Perekrutan naik menjadi 5,1 juta pada bulan Juni dari 5,0 juta pada Mei
*Waskita Beton Precast incar dana segar Rp4 triliun lewat IPO di harga Rp400-Rp500.
*CTRA -0,3%. Per Juli 2016, marketing sales tembus Rp3,4 triliun.
*LPKR +0,8%. Obligasi global oversubcribed hampir 5 kali.
*BBCA -0,3%. BCA genjot kredit konsumer di 2H16 seiring kebijakan pemerintah menurunkan suku bunga acuan dan relaksasi loan to value (LTV).
*BBNI -1,7%. BNI bidik kredit konsumer 10% di 2016 didorong oleh KPR dan KTA.
*INDS +1,8%. Harga bahan baku turun, laba 1H16 meroket ke Rp25,8 miliar vs Rp3,9 miliar pada 1H15.
*SMMA 0,0%. Sinar Mas Multiartha private placement Rp 50 miliar di harga Rp 5.006 per lembar.
Daily write up
Matahari Department Store (LPPF) - Great 2Q results by Christine Natasya (natasya@dwsec-id.com )
-LPPF mencatat pertumbuhan laba bersih secara QoQ sebesar 275% menjadi IDR913bn di 2Q16 (atau secara kumulatif IDR1.1tn di 1H16), sebagian besar didukung oleh pertumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 78% QoQ ke IDR3.3tr di 2Q16 atau IDR5.1tr secara kumulatif. Meskipun demikian, kita berpikir euforia keseluruhan SSSG yang luar biasa akan melambat di 3Q16 karena high base effect (Lebaran terjadi di 3Q15).
-LPPF membukukan marjin laba kotor sebesar 36,8% di 2Q16, naik 140bps dibandingkan 1Q16 atau 500bps lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan 2Q15. Margin LPPF ini meningkat karena margin yang kuat dari pembelian langsung (DP) yang telah berkinerja baik di 2Q16
-Pada 1H16, LPPF telah berhasil membuka 4 gerai baru yang berlokasi di Jabodetabek, Jawa dan luar Jawa. LPPF berencana membuka lagi 2-4 toko di 2H16 (2 toko akan buka di Jabodetabek) dan 6-8 toko di 2017F.
Karena LPPF tidak memiliki pesaing langsung (pesaing langsung adalah Centro (tidak terdaftar)), pembukaan toko baru akan berbuah di masa depan karena kenaikan private konsumsi seiring dengan membaiknya perekonomian.
Company update
Gudang Garam (GGRM) 1H16 Review: stable overall by Dang Maulida (dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com)
-Gudang Garam (GGRM) published its 1H16 financials with a net profit of IDR2.9tr (+19.4% YoY) and revenue of IDR36.9tr (+11.2% YoY). 1H16 revenue and net profit represented 48%, and 41% of our FY16 full year forecasts, respectively.
-We view GGRM’s 1H16 financial to be stable. We highlight the sound and stable profitability despite 2% YoY decrease in overall volume. On a stand alone basis, 2Q16 revenue grew by 5.4% QoQ, and by 10.9% YoY.
-We think current noise on the regulation aspects as well as uncertainties on the magnitude of next year’s excise tax more or less are priced in the current share price. Against the company fundamental and favorable macro backdrop, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the company.
Strategy report
Parallel universes – The Fed and BI by Taye Shim (taye.shim@dwsec.com)
(Aug 10, 2016)
- What happened in the US…: Post the ‘08 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policies (i.e., zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing) to revive the sagging economy.
- …is happening in Indonesia…: Recent policy developments lead us to believe that Indonesia is following the footsteps of US Federal Reserve. The central bank has cut its key rate by 100bps since January (US version: ZIRP) while signaling further rate cuts. President Jokowi also recently launched tax amnesty program. We believe the rate cut and liquidity injection combination will have an immediate impact on the financial market (JCI). Indeed, JCI is up 18% year-to-date.
- …and global fund flows remain favorable: Post Brexit, the synchronized monetary easing by global central banks have pushed down interest rates further and investors are actively seeking returns. We expect fund flows to remain favorable for Indonesia.
- We are turning more bullish on Indonesian equities: We revise up our 2016 JCI target ceiling from 5,550pt to 5,719pt by applying a target P/B of 2.70x. From a secular sector perspective, we recommend C.I.M.B (Consumer, Infrastructure, Miscellaneous industry, and Basic industry) sectors. Our secular stock selections are: UNVR, TLKM, ASII, and SMGR. Key risks to our view include a) weaker-than-expected tax amnesty participation, b) unexpected spike in inflation, and c) premature shift of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
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