CTRA TP Rp 1700
The Cheapest & Laggard Stock
Three reasons why we like CTRA
We initiate CTRA with a Buy and a TP of 1,700 (44% upside) on the back of: 1) Nation-wide exposure, made even better post-CTRS 100% incorporation, 3) Main beneficiary of currently cheap, incentive-rich Indonesia mortgage, and 3) Potential upside from government’s nation-wide infrastructure strengthening effort given their asset distribution.
The first to absorb commodity-driven demand surge
As of now, CTRA operates 71 projects spread across the country, while 35% are being located within Indonesia’s top-3 regions with highest growth rate. As commodity prices began steadily creep in value, we expect region’s average income to increase as well, thus giving CTRA an edge over its competition as none other listed developer has as widely-spread asset distribution as they do.
Valuation
Our TP is derived using DCF for both development property and capitalization on 2017’s NOI for investment property (see p.3 for valuation details). CTRA currently trades at 18.7x 2017 PE and 16% discount to its replacement cost.
Research Division
PT. Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.
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