Saham Pilihan Hari Ini, 19 Agustus 2016 (Maybank)
Indonesia Strategy
Isnaputra Iskandar comments on potential implication from 2017 budget proposal.The 2017 draft budget proposes to allocate a bigger budget to the construction sector and increase cigarette excise taxes only moderately.
The draft budget has allocated IDR337t to infrastructure, up 9.7% from 2016’s IDR307t. The government is also eyeing a 6.1% increase in excise-tax revenue, to IDR157t. This implies a 5.8% YoY increase in cigarette excise taxes to IDR150t. He reckons that 4-6% ASP growth should be palatable for the industry, as this will not affect volume.
The allocation for subsidised mortgages or FLPP has been raised by 5.4% YoY to IDR9.7t. This should have a minimum impact on BBTN (IDR1,920, BUY, TP IDR1,600) as FLPP loan only accounts less than 0.5%of BBTN’s projected 2016 total loans.
Isnaputra remains upbeat on the construction and cigarette sectors, expecting catalysts from better macroeconomic outlook and market rerating.
Stock picks are GGRM (BUY, TP IDR85,000), PTPP (BUY, TP IDR5,000) and WSKT (BUY, TP IDR3,400) are our sector picks
He maintains index target at 6,000(represent 17.4x FY17E P/E).
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