Analisa Saham ANTM
Mirae (YP) 29 Mar 2018
*ANTM BUY TP 1225*
*Still bullish on global nickel price due to low inventory* Given low inventory global nickel price, we are optimistic that global nickel price remains solid. Thus, we maintain our average full-year 2018 – 19F global nickel prices at USD13,000/ton and USD13,800/ton, respectively. In February, global nickel inventory stood at 335,280 tonnes (-6.1% MoM and -11.2% YoY). Furthermore, we also saw that Shanghai’s nickel inventory stayed low at 55,680 tonnes (-1.9% MoM and -37.6% YoY).
Maintain our 2018F-19F earnings estimates As we leave our forecast assumptions unchanged, we keep our revenue forecasts at IDR24.2tr in 2018 and IDR23.3tr in 2019, and our gross profit forecasts at IDR3.3tr in 2018 (+99.5% YoY) and IDR3.4tr in 2019 (+4.9% YoY). We also keep our full-year net profit forecasts at IDR864bn in 2018 (+532.8% YoY) and IDR1.1tr in 2019 (+22.8% YoY).
*Maintain Buy call and TP of IDR1,225 With unaltered earnings estimate, we maintain our target price at IDR1,225, implying attractive upside potentials of 59.1%.* We used a blended valuation methodology (DCF and P/B target) to capture ANTM’s target price. ANTM is currently trading at a 2018F-19F P/B of 1.0x and 0.9x, respectively. Risks to our call: lower global nickel prices and higher impairment from its joint venture companies
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