Analisa Saham ADRO dan LPPF | 6 Maret 2019

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ADRO: 4Q18 review: Weak results by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (   

- For full-year 2018, Adaro Energy (ADRO) posted below par financial results with net profit of USD418mn, achieving only 85.4% and 92.0% of our and consensus’ targets.

- This disappointing performance was due to: (1) lower global coal price; (2) lower sales volume, and; (3) loss in its joint-venture investment that reached USD78mn, which mostly came from the Kestrel mine in 3Q18. The good news is this loss is a one-off cost only and should not occur in 2019.

- We still maintain our earnings estimate and our target price for ADRO at IDR1,995.

- Downside risks include regulatory changes and lower global coal prices. ADRO is currently trading at 2019F-20F P/Es of 5.1x and 4.2x, respectively.
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Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Online disruptions by Christine Natasya (
Mar 5, 2019 

- For 2019 same-store sales growth (SSSG), management guided a conservative figure (flat to low single digits) due to the negative impact of online retailers’ emergence. 

- LPPF’s board is changing the dividend payout policy from 70% to 50% of net profit. The company plans to use the money saved to support its growth strategy, expanding both large-format stores and smaller-format and specialty stores. The capex plan for 2019 is IDR400-500bn (excluding one-off capex of IDR200bn for logistics). Thus, according to our calculation, capex for this year might be double the 2017 figure.

- We have yet to see an upside driver (such as much-better-than-expected SSSG or higher-than-expected margins) materialize, mostly due to online retailers’ disruptive effect on the company’s performance. We downgrade our rating on LPPF to Sell with a target price of IDR4,900. 
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