Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Embun Pagi (Juli 31, 2018)
Research Team (research@miraeasset.co.id)
Market comment by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
Wall street ditutup lebih rendah dengan Dow jatuh oleh 144,23pts ke 25.306,83. Selain itu, Nasdaq dan S&P masing-masing turun ke 7.630,00 dan 2.802,60 (masing-masing -107,42pts dan -16,22pts). Nasdaq memposting kerugian 3 hari terbesar sejak Maret karena turunnya saham Facebook dan Netflix. Sementara itu, Trump sebagai presiden AS siap bertemu dengan presiden Iran Hasan Rouhani. Komentar presiden datang di tengah meningkatnya ketegangan antara AS dan Iran. Hari ini, kami memprediksi bahwa IHSG akan terus menguat didukung penguatan IDR terhadap USD. Selanjutnya, pemerintah Indonesia berencana mengumumkan peraturan baru untuk domestic market obligation batubara (DMO).
Market Indicator
JCI: 6,027.94 (+0.65%)
EIDO: 24.22 (+0.41%)
DJIA: 25,306.83 (-0.57%)
FTSE100: 7,700.85 (-0.01%)
USD/IDR: 14,415 (-0.01%)
10yr GB yield: 7.73% (-2bps)
Oil Price: 70.13 (-2.10%)
Foreign net purchase: IDR234.8bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: ADRO, INKP, INDY, WSBP, BMRI
TOP SELL: PTBA, BBNI, ERAA, TLKM, BBTN
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
ADRO, PTBA, ERAA, BBRI, ANTM
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (saryanto@miraeasset.co.id)
Trump mengatakan dia akan meninggalkan ruang untuk negosiasi atas imigrasi, shutdown
Trump menyerukan kepada Kongres untuk meloloskan langkah-langkah keamanan perbatasan
Trump mengatakan dia akan 'tidak masalah' dengan shutdown pemerintah
*POLY +18.2%. Pendapatan naik, Asia Pacific Fiber raih laba hingga Juni 2018
*BOLT + 1.0%. Garuda Metalindo raih penjualan Rp 552.89 Miliar
*WOOD + 4.5%. Integra Indocabinet raih penjualan bersih Rp 905.71 Miliar
*ISAT -4.5%. Pendapatan Indosat turun jadi Rp 11.06 Triliun
*ENRG -1.2%. Penjualan neto Energi Mega Persada turun jadi US$ 66.72 juta
*HOKI -1.7%. Buyung Poetra raih penjualan Rp 764.46 Miliar
Flash focus
JPFA 2Q18 earnings flash review by Mimi Halimin (mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id)
- JPFA’s 2Q18 revenue grew to IDR8.8tr (+17.8% YoY, +12.5% QoQ), with all business segments posting positive YoY and QoQ sales growth.
- Animal feeds, the biggest contributor to JPFA’s revenue, saw its OP margin improve to 13.4% (vs. 12.0% in 2Q17).
- The poultry business (feeds, broilers, and DOC), which accounted for 86.7% of JPFA’s 1H18 revenue, grew 16.7% YoY, likely supported by higher broiler and DOC ASP.
- Our recommendation on JPFA post-2Q18 results is currently under review.
(See at: https://goo.gl/MZ6e4R)
Flash focus
INTP 2Q18 earnings flash review by Mimi Halimin (mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id)
- INTP’s 2Q18 revenue was a mere IDR3.0tr (-3.9% YoY, -11.5% QoQ), weighed by weak volume (due to the longer Eid al-Fitr holiday this year) combined with the lack of significant ASP improvement.
- Gross margin in 2Q18 deteriorated to 23.4% (vs. 34.0% in 2Q17 and 28.7% in 1Q18), which we attribute to higher energy prices, seasonally low cement consumption in the quarter, and persistent oversupply.
- Overall, even though a weak performance had been expected (given the seasonally low cement consumption in 2Q due to the Lebaran holiday), INTP’s 1H18 net profit still fell far short of expectations.
- Our recommendation on INTP post-2Q18 results is currently under review.
(See at: https://goo.gl/RwKoM8)
Earnings review
HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ) - 2Q18 review: Double-digit bottom-line growth by Christine Natasya (nataysa@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 30, 2018)
- For 2Q18, HMSP delivered net revenue of IDR26.02tr (+12.5% QoQ, +8.4% YoY). Meanwhile, net profit was IDR3.08tr in 2Q18 (+1.6% QoQ, +11.6% YoY) which was a better performance compared to 1Q18 (-9% QoQ, 7.9% YoY).
- The company saw its GPM contract again in 2Q18, to 22.8% (-1%p QoQ, 0.5%p YoY; vs. 23.8% in 1Q18 and 23.3% in 2Q17)
- On the bright side, HMSP’s sales volume growth (+0.7% YoY) outperformed the industry (which saw a slight overall decline in volume), and its overall market share improved slightly to 33.2% (vs. 32.7% in 2Q17).
- As of 2Q18, the price per stick of Magnum Mild stood at IDR980, the cheapest among HMSP’s brands. However, compared to 1Q18 prices, the ASP of Magnum Mild increased at a faster rate (+5% QoQ) than any other brand. While we think the sale of lower-priced products is negative to HMSP’s margins, we also see further room for ASP growth, which will help minimize further margin deterioration. Hence, we retain our bottom line forecast.
- We retain our Hold recommendation on HMSP but increase our target price to IDR4,200, as we raise our target multiple to +1std deviation. We believe our target multiple is reasonable given the company’s recent sales volume gains. Nonetheless, due to margin deterioration and limited upside, we reiterate our Hold recommendation on the company. Upside risks to our call include faster-than-expected sales volume growth in 3Q18, better margins, strong market share gains, operating cost efficiencies, and industry consolidation.
(See full report: https://goo.gl/2pHYWR)
Flash Focus
HOKI 1H18 results by Andy Wibowo (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 30, 2018)
- Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI/Trading Buy/TP: IDR1,040) booked net profit of IDR50bn, representing 56.9% and 61.0% of our and consensus’ full-year net profit targets. This higher net profit was driven by higher revenue, which stood at IDR764bn (+9.1% YoY).
- On a quarterly basis, HOKI’s 2Q18 revenue went up to IDR384bn (+1.0% QoQ). Meanwhile, HOKI’s 2Q18 net profit went down to IDR24bn (-10.3% QoQ), which we suspect was due to Eid-al-Fitr bonus payment for their employees as seen in higher operating expenses of IDR19.6bn (+13.0% QoQ).
- The company has yet to publish its operational performance data.
- In the longer term, we believe that HOKI’s net profit will reach IDR153.1bn in 2020F, thus growing +36.7% CAGR 2016 – 2020F, or jumping seven times higher than Indonesia’s economy (please see further in our initiation report “The premium player” at https://goo.gl/e1oc45).
(Please see more at: https://goo.gl/rNxfKS)
Flash Focus
ISAT 2Q18 highlights flash review by Giovanni Dustin
(giovanni@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 30, 2018)
- ISAT 2Q18 revenue: IDR5.4tr (-6% QoQ, -31% YoY), 37%/40% run rates against full-year estimates (ours and consensus, respectively).
- EBITDA: IDR1.6tr (-20% QoQ, -56% YoY), 29%/32% run rates (ours/cons).
- EBITDA margin declined to 29% (34% in 1Q18; 46% in 2Q17).
- Our recommendation on ISAT is currently under-review (Previous: Buy/TP: IDR6,400). More color and outlook to follow, as the full financial statements are scheduled to be released on August 9th.
(Please see more at https://goo.gl/isHS45)
Flash Focus
ACES 2Q18’s flash results by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 30, 2018)
- ACES booked robust net profit of IDR221.2bn in 2Q18 (+5.9% QoQ, +27.1%YoY). Bottom line was above our estimate and the consensus forecast, bringing the cumulative 1H18 run-rate to 48%/47% against our 2018 estimate and the full-year consensus (vs. 42-44% over the past three years), respectively.
- 2Q18 net revenue growth was in the double digits again (+23.6% YoY, +15.1% QoQ), reaching IDR1.81tr.
- In 1H18, the company recorded strong SSSG of 13.4% YTD. We believe the strong top-line results were also supported by a cooldown in the competitive environment, and new store openings throughout the 1H18. In 2Q18, the company opened 10 new stores, including three Ace Express stores (smaller store format), which are located in Tangerang, Bintaro, and Green Ville.
- ACES booked a stable gross margin of 48% in 2Q18 (vs. 47.8% in 1Q18 and 48% in 2Q18), despite a depreciating rupiah throughout 2Q18. We think margin was supported by the fact that ACES applies a cost-plus-margin scheme, and that a lagging effect is expected on any rupiah depreciation.
- We maintain our Trading Buy rating on ACES with a target price of IDR1,540.
(See more: https://goo.gl/pqJTz2)
ZINC menetapkan target pendapatan IDR1 triliun (Kontan)
PT Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk (ZINC) mencatat hasil keuangan yang fantastis dengan pendapatan tumbuh 140,87% YoY menjadi IDR372,53 miliar. Selain itu, bottom-line perusahaan melonjak 662,53% YoY menjadi IDR84,87 miliar. Secara keseluruhan, perusahaan optimis memperoleh pendapatan IDR1 triliun untuk tahun ini.
