Saham Pilihan Hari Ini, 16 Agustus 2016 (RHB)

RHB RESEARCH

Company update:

London Sumatra (LSIP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR1,800),

On The Road To Recovery

While London Sumatra (Lonsum) booked weak 1H16 earnings due to dismal CPO production caused by El Nino, we expect CPO production to recover from 2H16 onwards – which should lead to lower unit production costs and improved profitability. We fine-tune our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call with a revised TP of IDR1,800 (from IDR1,850, 23% upside). Its earnings should recover in FY17, due to a recovery in production post El Nino. Valuations remain undemanding with a EV/ha of USD7,574, which is as cheap as the cost of new planting.

¨ CPO production to recover from 2H16. Taking a lesson from its El Nino experience in 2009, Lonsum’s decrease in CPO production in 2010 was followed by strong production growth in 2011 (Figure 2). CPO production has recovered from the El Nino impact since Jun 2016, which should be sustained in the coming months. Its CPO production recovery should enable production costs per unit of palm products to drop and enable it to generate higher profit.

¨ New planting to sustain future production growth. Unlike Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR16,000) which has stopped new planting since 2016, Lonsum continues to do new planting in order to sustain its future production growth. Lonsum still has 10,000 ha of unplanted landbank, which is enough to keep it busy for the next 10 years. It targets to do new planting of 1,000 ha in FY16. In 1H16, Lonsum did new planting of around 150 ha.

¨ Weak 1H16 results was due to a sizeable drop in production. Its weak 1H16 earnings (-63.5% YoY) were mainly from a 29% YoY fall in CPO production caused by the time-lagged impact of El Nino. This is much weaker than our FY16F CPO production growth of -3.7% YoY. As as result, we cut our FY16F production growth to -17.2% YoY, which is the main reason why we also cut our earnings estimate for the same period by 36.6%.

Indonesian palm oil Industry updates:

i. Indonesian palm oil inventories declined. According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), inventories fell further to 1.8 m tonnes in Jun 2016 (vs 4.5 m tonnes at end-2015).

ii. B20 biodiesel mandate for public service obligation is on track. According to Indonesian Estate Crop Fund, biodiesel domestic consumption has reached 1.4m kilolitres (kl) in 6M16 (vs 593,000 kl in FY15) (Figure 4), which mostly comes from subsidised biodiesel B20.

¨ Buy with a revised TP of IDR1,800. We fine-tune our assumptions to factor in weaker-than-expected production in 1H16 and cut FY16F-18F earnings by 36.6-0.1%. Our TP is based on an unchanged 16.4x target P/E on FY17F’s revised EPS. Our TP also implies an EV/ha of USD9,306, which is within the range of Indonesia-listed planters. Key risks to our call includes weaker-than-expected demand for CPO and a strengthening rupiah.

Best regards,

Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CA, CPA

Vice President

Research Analyst – Heavy Equipment, Plantation

PT. RHB Securities Indonesia

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