Analisa Saham ITMG
CLSA - ITMG TARGET PRICE 27,200
The three main points for ITM regarding Indonesia power:
• ITMG do not have a power plant in Indonesia even though its parent, Banpu has power plant projects in other countries in South East Asia.
• ITMG’s exposure to domestic demand is purely through its DMO. Percentage may appear bigger in 17CL because ITMG’s drop in production.
• But it is cheaper than its peers. Drop in production this year also means volume growth in 18CL is more likely compared to peers.
ITMG valuation details
We value ITM using an average valuation of DCF (WACC 13%), PE of 11x and EV/Ebitda of 5x for average 18/19CL forecasts. The multiples used are at ITM's mean five-year historical averages.
ITMG investment risks
As with other coal miners, the risks are from cheaper coal prices, higher crude and a stronger rupiah than forecast. For ITM specifically, the company is shutting down its operations in Kitadin and Jorong. ITM also needs to either upgrade its resources to reserves for the remaining mines or acquire other mines with more reserves.
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