Maintain BUY and Street-high end IDR9,500 TP, 16% upside, with 4%
FY19F yield. Next week, Astra International is likely to launch facelifted
models of the small MPV Toyota Avanza and Daihatsu Xenia. Our channel
checks indicate selling prices could be unchanged from previous models –
but also come with a lower sales discount. While these are not entirely new
models, these fresh versions should boost Astra’s auto sales.
Avanza and Xenia new models may be launched next week. Toyota
dealers we spoke to told us that they are now taking sales orders for the new
Avanza, with IDR5m upfront to book a unit. However, booking numbers may
not be available yet, and could come only in 19 Jan. The new Avanza likely is
a facelifted version, with major changes to the front and back fascia, and
could be equipped with LED headlamps. With a fresh look and unchanged
prices, it is likely an attractive “best value” option for small MPV buyers.
Upgraded features for new Avanza. It is likely to be powered by a Euro-4-
compliant engine, with lower gas emissions than the previous model. The
dashboard may come with upgraded features as well. For the high-end Veloz,
it may come with a smart entry key, smart start/stop engine, new audio 6”
touchscreen with Bluetooth, a 6-speaker audio system and new digital airconditioning. It is also anticipated to have a better suspension system.
Astra’s vehicle sales growth should accelerate in 2019, partly driven by
new models. Avanza and Xenia monthly wholesales declined to 6,860 and
2,460 units in 11M18, vs 9,690 and 3,210 units in FY17. Avanza and Xenia
sales contributions to Astra’s total sales also declined to 19% in 11M18 (27%
in FY17). As the current Avanza model has not undergone any significant
updates for eight years, we believe a fresh version should boost sales.
BUY with a IDR9,500 TP, 15-13x FY19-20F P/Es (16% upside) on a more
promising outlook, thanks to improving 4W vehicle sales. Although not totally
new, the facelifted Avanza should boost Astra sales. Key risks include intense
competition in the auto industry. That said, Astra is now better at managing
competition – as indicated by its widening market shares.
Andrey Wijaya
+6221 2970 7058
andrey.wijaya@rhbgroup.com
Mutiara Nita
+6221 2783 0719
mutiara.nita@rhbgroup.com
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