Analisa Saham BBRI, BMRI dan BBNI

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*Indonesia Banks: Buy Big-3 SOE Banks on Weakness. BBRI Top Pick, Followed by BMRI & BBNI* (Henry Wibowo, Alvin Baramuli- RHB Research)

Report Link:
https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/11/rhb-report-ind-banks_sector-update_20190531_rhb-48920589319986905cf07717968af.pdf

*OVERWEIGHT; BUY BBRI, BMRI and BBNI*. MTD, SOE Big-3 Banks’ share prices are down by up to 15% amidst foreign fund outflow (political uncertainty), asset quality concerns (Krakatau Steel restructuring), and MSCI rebalancing. Also, 4M19 banks-only results indicated diverging earnings growth: BBRI (+15%), BMRI (+17%), BBNI (-5%). BBRI/BMRI’s provisions fell 20%/30%, while BBNI’s grew 44%. New BUYs pecking order: BBRI (still Top Pick), BMRI is now in second place (reduced M&A overhang), and BBNI is third (likely higher provisions in 2Q19).

*Concerns on Krakatau Steel (80%-owned by Government) restructuring overdone*. Krakatau Steel (KRAS IJ, NR) is reportedly undergoing another round of restructuring, which will likely lift provision coverage needs, and raise credit cost for its creditors (mainly the SOE banks). Our checks indicate these banks have made provisions for KRAS: BBRI (60%), BMRI (15%) and BBNI (10%) – it still has current/Category 1 loans there. BBNI and BMRI are targeting to increase provisions by around 20%, while BBRI is comfortable with current level. In a worst-case scenario – if they have fully provisioned for KRAS – a default would occur. If this fleshes out, the biggest impact to P&L will mostly be felt by BBNI (27%), followed by BMRI (18%) and BBRI (4%). Note that for the SOE banks, the total loan exposure of KRAS is <1.5%, so the impact of NPL (should KRAS be downgraded) is not as significant – although it still presents an adverse effect. Nonetheless, we believe there is a very small chance of defaulting, as KRAS is majority-owned (80%) by the Government of Indonesia.

*4M19 results: BBRI/BMRI’s still solid; BBNI weak on higher provisions*. BBRI, BMRI and BBNI have announced 4M19 bank-only results. BMRI’s earnings grew by 17% YoY (3M19: +16%), supported by a drop in provision expense (-30%) while PPOP remained subdued (+3%). BBRI’s earnings rose 15% YoY (3M19: +12% YoY) also supported by a decline in provisions (-20% YoY) while PPOP remained muted (+1% YoY). On the flip side, BBNI’s earnings dipped 5% YoY (3M19: +10.7% YoY) as provision expense rose 44% YoY, which we believe is from its medium segment and the provision increase for KRAS. This could mean an uptrend in provisions for BBNI for 2Q19. Meanwhile, overall loan growth remained solid as BBNI’s loans grew by 20%, BBRI’s by 12%, and BMRI’s at 9%.

*Big-4 Banks: BUY BBRI/BMRI/BBNI, NEUTRAL on BBCA. Small/Mid Banks: BTPS, PNBN are Top Picks.* Our top 3 Big-4 picks are trading at undemanding valuations, with BBRI at 2.2x 2019 P/BV (18% ROE), BMRI at 1.7x P/BV (15% ROE), and BBNI the cheapest at 1.4x P/BV (16% ROE). We remain constructive on 2H19 outlook for Indo Banks, preferring large caps over small/mid-caps on liquidity divergence. Our bullishness is based on: dovish interest rates outlook (potential 25bps cut in 4Q19)as positive for NIM trend; loan growth recovery, driven by investment loan as the capex- cycle has returned; and return of foreign fund flow (post-election overhang).

Komentar

  1. KARNA RASA HATI YANG GEMBIRA BERKAT BANTUAN AKI SOLEH
    MAKANYA SENGAJA NAMA BELIAU SAYA CANTUNKAN DI INTERNET !!!

    assalamualaikum wr, wb, saya IBU RAHMA saya Mengucapkan banyak2
    Terima kasih kepada: AKI SOLEH
    atas nomor togelnya yang kemarin AKI berikan "4D"
    alhamdulillah ternyata itu benar2 tembus AKI
    dan berkat bantuan AKI SOLEH saya bisa melunasi semua hutan2…
    orang tua saya yang ada di BANK BRI dan bukan hanya itu AKI alhamdulillah,
    sekarang saya sudah bisa bermodal sedikit untuk mencukupi kebutuhan keluarga saya sehari2.
    Itu semua berkat bantuan AKI SOLEH sekali lagi makasih banyak ya, AKI
    yang ingin merubah nasib
    seperti saya...?
    SILAHKAN GABUNG SAMA AKI SOLEH No; { 082-313-336-747 }

    Sebelum Gabung Sama AKI Baca Duluh Kata2 Yang Dibawah Ini
    Apakah anda termasuk dalam kategori di bawah ini...!!
    1: Di kejar2 tagihan hutang..
    2: Selaluh kalah dalam bermain togel
    3: Barang berharga sudah
    terjual buat judi togel..
    4: Sudah kemana2 tapi tidak
    menghasilkan, solusi yang tepat..!
    5: Sudah banyak dukun ditempati minta angka ritual blom dapat juga,
    6: Pelet pemikat hati untuk pria
    7: Pesugihan tanpah tumbal
    8: Dukun santet paling ampuh
    satu jalan menyelesaikan masalah anda..
    Dijamin anda akan berhasil
    silahkan buktikan sendiri
    Atau Chat/Tlpn di WhatsApp (WA)
    No WA Aki : 082313336747

    TERIMA KASIH YANG PUNYA
    ROOM ATAS TUMPANGANYA SALAM KOMPAK SELALU

    "http://angkaramalantogel.blogspot.co.id/"

    BalasHapus
    Balasan
    1. KARNA RASA HATI YANG GEMBIRA BERKAT BANTUAN AKI SOLEH
      MAKANYA SENGAJA NAMA BELIAU SAYA CANTUNKAN DI INTERNET !!!

      assalamualaikum wr, wb, saya IBU RAHMA saya Mengucapkan banyak2
      Terima kasih kepada: AKI SOLEH
      atas nomor togelnya yang kemarin AKI berikan "4D"
      alhamdulillah ternyata itu benar2 tembus AKI
      dan berkat bantuan AKI SOLEH saya bisa melunasi semua hutan2…
      orang tua saya yang ada di BANK BRI dan bukan hanya itu AKI alhamdulillah,
      sekarang saya sudah bisa bermodal sedikit untuk mencukupi kebutuhan keluarga saya sehari2.
      Itu semua berkat bantuan AKI SOLEH sekali lagi makasih banyak ya, AKI
      yang ingin merubah nasib
      seperti saya...?
      SILAHKAN GABUNG SAMA AKI SOLEH No; { 082-313-336-747 }

      Sebelum Gabung Sama AKI Baca Duluh Kata2 Yang Dibawah Ini
      Apakah anda termasuk dalam kategori di bawah ini...!!
      1: Di kejar2 tagihan hutang..
      2: Selaluh kalah dalam bermain togel
      3: Barang berharga sudah
      terjual buat judi togel..
      4: Sudah kemana2 tapi tidak
      menghasilkan, solusi yang tepat..!
      5: Sudah banyak dukun ditempati minta angka ritual blom dapat juga,
      6: Pelet pemikat hati untuk pria
      7: Pesugihan tanpah tumbal
      8: Dukun santet paling ampuh
      satu jalan menyelesaikan masalah anda..
      Dijamin anda akan berhasil
      silahkan buktikan sendiri
      Atau Chat/Tlpn di WhatsApp (WA)
      No WA Aki : 082313336747

      TERIMA KASIH YANG PUNYA
      ROOM ATAS TUMPANGANYA SALAM KOMPAK SELALU

      "http://angkaramalantogel.blogspot.co.id/"

      Hapus

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